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The Leafs should take a run at Korpisalo, as is rumoured

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Mike Armenti
October 4, 2020  (3:08 PM)
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It's no secret that the Toronto Maple Leafs are looking to make some upgrades during the offseason, primarily on the blue line, and in between the pipes. So, naturally, when the guy who was responsible for sending you packing in the qualifying round of the 2019-20 NHL Playoffs is rumoured to be on the market, you just can't help but to be interested. Such is the case between the Leafs and Columbus Blue Jackets netminder, Joonas Korpisalo.

Now, I do want to preface this by stating that Frederik Andersen is well above the line of an average goaltender in the NHL. A line that prior to these playoffs, Joonas Korpisalo would likely have found himself on the other side of. But something funny happens when a team faces an early postseason exit in four consecutive seasons - doubt begins to creep in. In this case, dount in the fact that Andersen is the right man for the job in Toronto.

While the jury is still out on whether or not Andersen is a guy who is consistent enough and is capable of carrying his team through a lengthy playoff run, the evidence is beginning to pile up heavily to the contrary.

Upon first glance, Korpisalo did not fare much better, with his Jackets having been ousted by a series score of 4-1 in the first round by the eventual Stanley Cup Champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning. Korpisalo's individual performance, however, kept the Jackets in pretty much every contest, and included an NHL Playoffs record-setting 85-save performance in game one of the series.

If the Leafs believe that Joonas Korpisalo is even 80% as good as his playoff performance suggests, they would be foolish to not have any interest in the 26-year-old netminder. His salary ($2.6M AAV for two more seasons) is much less than Andersen's at just $5M for one more season, at which point Andersen would become a UFA and likely price himself right out of the market in Toronto.

While it's not entirely clear what the Maple Leafs would be willing to offer the Blue Jackets in an attempt to acquire Korpisalo, one would have to assume that the assets they would acquire in a subsequent deal involving Andersen would help to offset the cost of acquiring the Jackets netminder.

Such a move would not come without an inherent risk, as with Korpisalo, you'd be judging his value based on an incredibly small margin of individual success. Andersen may not be the best goalie in the NHL, but you could certainly make a fair argument to put him inside of the top 10. More often than not with Andersen, you know what you're getting. A quick google search of Korpisalo's career statistics might suggest that the Pori, Finland native is a bit of a gamble, if you're the Maple Leafs.

His career 2.73 GAA is not going to move the needle, and his while his .911 career SV% is certainly nothing to be ashamed of, it's also not going to keep you warm at night if you're Leafs GM Kyle Dubas and you just brought Korpisalo in as a replacement for Andersen, whose career SV% is .917, with a 2.61 GAA to go along with it. As a matter of fact, Andersen has more wins (215) than Korpisalo has games played at the NHL level (136).

In case you're beginning to view this article as a case for why not to replace Andersen with Korpisalo, let me put that to rest. I believe that the move is a wise one if you're Kyle Dubas for a number of reasons.

1) Salary cap savings. With Korpisalo earning $2.4M less against the cap than Andersen does, it allows the Buds to spend that money elsewhere. Say, on the blue line, where you can ultimately help to make Korpisalo's life a little easier.

2) Team control. With Korpisalo having an extra year of control at such a low cap hit, it provides the Leafs will a little more time and a little more money to seek out a tangible upgrade between the pipes (or develop one internally).

3. A strong tandem. While Korpisalo's career-high in starts (37) came last season, he has valuable experience in playing as a tandem. Where most goalies need a larger body of work to develop their identity as an NHL goaltender, Korpisalo has shown his ability to thrive in a near 50/50 split situation, earning a career-high 19 wins last season.

The other half of the tandem would be the recently acquired Jack Campbell, who owns a career .916 SV%. Campbell, like Korpisalo, may not be ready for a large body of work, say in the 54 start range. His career-high 31 starts in 2018-19 with the Kings yielded terrific results. With other teams showing that tandems can be quite effective, this could be a perfect opportunity for the Leafs to take a run with two goalies, and ride the hot hand, as opposed to going at it with one primary and one backup.

4) Playoff performance. This one is a no-brainer. For as much skill as Andersen has, he has never really been able to stay consistent throughout the playoffs. With Korpisalo showcasing what he can do in the postseason, recency bias may be enough for Dubas to favor taking the gamble on Korpisalo if it means breaching the door to the 2nd round for the first time in the last 15+ years.

Count me among those most interested in what sort of moves the Maple Leafs intend to make during this offseason. Though it's entirely possible that a very similar version of the Leafs returns for the 2020-21 season, we may yet see Dubas and company work some magic in an attempt to find a winning formula - something the Leafs have lacked for a long, long time.