Offseason Summary & 2022-23 Outlook for the Tampa Bay Lightning

We are in the dog days of summer, and there is little to report in the way of news, trades, & signings. So now that 98% of the pieces have fallen into place for the upcoming campaign, we can look at each club's additions & subtractions and assess what can be expected of them. Most teams are competing for the Stanley Cup, others are at one point or another of a rebuild, retool, or a straight up tank job. With 32 teams to get to, we are almost done the first of four divisions, the Atlantic Division. Last up, the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Tampa Bay Lighting, after winning 11 straight playoff series and two Stanley Cups, lost in the Stanley Cup final to the Colorado Avalanche. The cost of such a dominant run is catching up with the Lightning this summer, as they were forced to say farewell to a number of key players for purely salary cap reasons.

Departures: Ondrej Palat, Ryan McDonagh, Jan Rutta

Additions: Phillippe Myers, Grant Mismash, Ian Cole, Haydn Fleury, Vladislav Nemestnikov

The Tampa Bay Lightning had virtually no weakness in 2021-22, but that might not be the case in 2022-23. Replacing Ryan McDonagh with Ian Cole, Haydn Fleury and Phillippe Myers could work, but it is unlikely that any of them completely fill McDonagh's shoes. Also gone is Ondrej Palat, who has been arguably the best secondary scorer in the last ten years, and they could not bring in a viable replacement for him due to cap constraints. Those two absences alone leave a sizable hole in their lineup.

On top of losing two key players for nothing, the core of the team is another year older having gone through three grueling playoff runs. The Bolts will field the third-oldest team in 2022-23, according to CapFriendly. No one is saying they are dinosaurs or anything, they will still be a great team, but will they be able to dominate their way through the eastern conference for a fourth straight postseason? What if injuries start piling up in the regular season? Oh yeah, I almost forgot -- long-term injured reserve.

Speaking of, with all the Lightning's problems they are still $7.2 million over the NHL's salary cap with Brent Seabrook's $6.8 million heading to LTIR at the start of the season. So GM Julien Brisebois will need to figure out a way to get $400,000 off of his books.

Realistically, the Lightning will still be a dominant team in the Atlantic Division and will most definitely be in the playoffs. Injuries are the only hinderance that can keep them out of the postseason, but once they get there they will encounter heavy resistance. It took seven games to be a much younger and less experienced Maple Leafs group, and if anything the Leafs improved, as did many in the division. Still, Tampa's group is hardened and hungry, having the Cup ripped from their hands. By now, it has become bad form to bet against the Lightning, but I'm going to and say they will not make it past the second round with their current group. There is plenty of time for Brisebois to add by the trade deadline, but with no first-round picks until 2025 his bargaining power has dwindled over the years, another cost of winning so much. Simply, a team like Toronto, Washington, or the Carolina Hurricanes have added while the Lightning subtracted, and I don't think they have the means of adding appropriately. Therefore, I think the Lightning have peaked, and will slowly descend over the next couple of seasons.

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