Ondrej Palat Signs with the New Jersey Devils

After failing to land Johnny Gaudreau, the New Jersey Devils signed Ondrej Palat to a five-year, $30 million contract ($6M AAV):

Palat, 31, is quite the story; the Czech forward was drafted #208 Overall in the 7th round of the 2011 NHL Entry Draft by the Tampa Bay Lightning. Arguably one of the biggest draft steals of all-time, Palat has scored a 50-point pace in all but two of his 10 NHL seasons, including 94 playoff points in 138 such matches. But Palat is one of those players whose value supersedes the stat sheet; Palat can play in all situations, play any style & with any players his team needs him to, and he gets the job done, no matter what. It is quite remarkable how useful he has been for the Tampa Bay Lightning for so long. He was there for all of their ups & downs of the last decade. Losing in the 2015 Stanley Cup Final to the Chicago Blackhawks, then grinding through the rest of the 2010s only to emerge with back-to-back Stanley Cup championships in 2020 & 2021.

It was clear the Devils were all-in on Johnny Gaudreau & had to hedge with Palat. Palat, for all he's done in his career, is still 31 & will be making $6 million until he's 36, and it is common for play to decline on that side of thirty. The Devils need to show fans they're willing to spend money in order to be competitive, but this could easily be a rough-looking contract sooner than later.

As for the optimistic case for Palat's signing in NJ, he has proven he can play anywhere in the lineup with any players & still produce offense. He's a persistent forechecker with the ability to make plays in tight--a key component of keeping up with the best players--and score any way he needs to. The Devils were not as bad of a team as their standings position might suggest:

Simply put, they were a strong puck possession team who were absolutely handicapped by a 28th ranked powerplay & league-worst goaltending.

By advanced stats, the Devils were top-half in the league in 5v5 Expected Goals Percentage, ahead of teams like the St. Louis Blues, the New York Rangers, & the Washington Capitals.

In 5v5 xGF/60, the Devils ranked 10th in the NHL, ahead of teams like the Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild, & Boston Bruins. They also ranked 10th in actual goals for, so scoring goals 5-on-5 was not a problem for the high-flying Devils. Rather, scoring goals with the man-advantage. xGA/60 tells another story altogether.

While they weren't even 'good' defensively, they should not have allowed as many goals as they did & that is, entirely, due to awful goaltending. In xGA/60, the Devils ranked 22nd, ahead of teams like the New York Islanders, St. Louis Blues, the Edmonton Oilers. So reasonably, with even fair goaltending New Jersey could field a competitive team.

All of that to say, the Palat signing was not exactly what the Devils were after, but he could make a big difference on a young, up & coming Devils unit. The signing could easily age poorly, but it could also pay off & finally help get the Devils into the playoffs. And there is no reason to suspect GM Tom Fitzgerald is done. There are still several restricted & unrestricted free agents left unsigned as of today. Unsigned RFAs include Patrik Laine, Matthew Tkachuk, Noah Dobson, Pierre-Luc Dubois, & Andrew Mangiapane, any of whom could be the recipient of an offer-sheet. Unsigned UFAs include Nazem Kadri & Dylan Strome. So the Devils could still add another impact piece before the summer is over. If they don't, I still think the moves they've made so far this summer could be enough to make them competitive.

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